Swine Flu: What happens next

As new cases of swine flu emerge around the world, World Health Organization(WHO) has on Monday raised its global pandemic alert level to level four, indicating the influenza virus is capable of sustained human-to-human transmission.

Unlike severe acute respiratory syndrome, or better known as SARS, that hit Hong Kong in 2003, the AH1N1 strain of swine flu has a higher potential to develop into pandemic levels, as the virus has already been confirmed to transmit between humans. It also triggers mostly mild symptoms and has a lower mortality rate compared to SARS. "Although SARS jumped the animal-to-human barrier, it didn't mutate enough to enable sustained human-to-human infection, said Dr. K.Y. Yuen, head of microbiology at Hong Kong University.

"Strictly speaking, Avian Influenza and SARS did not become pandemics because they were too good at killing their hosts. For a sustained pandemic, it needs to be able to maintain human-to-human contact without killing its host off," he said.

While it's too early to predict how widespread the swine flu epidemic will become, it's important to assess its threat and implications to the world, so that we are better prepared when the worst happens.

If there is any lesson that we can learn from the 2003 SARS, it is the economy will come to a halt. As governments impose travel restrictions and close its borders to contain the outbreak, schools will close, and airports will be empty. Tourism and transportation industries will be crippled. In 2003, airline travel to Hong Kong fell by 77 percent and retail sales by 15 percent amid the SARS outbreak.

Financial market knows the consequences of a full-blown flu pandemic. Stock exchanges around the globe tumbled yesterday, with airlines and tourism companies among the hardest hit. On the other hand, shares of pharmaceutical companies that manufacture antiviral drug for influenza shot up in anticipation of greater demand for their drugs. If the flu outbreak gets worse, this trend will surely extend. So, it is best to keep a close watch on those stocks to make a prudent investment as the situation develops.

Although swine flu cannot be transmitted through eating properly cooked pork or any pork product, consumers will normally avoid pork products. Hog industry will too come to a standstill. People will stay at home and avoid as much social contact as possible, causing retail business to dwindle to almost nothing. As a result, internet business will prosper when people turn to the wired world at home to gather information and obtain services.

After a roller-coaster ride last year, the world economy is finally seeing a light at the end of the tunnel. The swine flu outbreak could not have come at a worse time for the world already reeling from a banking and financial crisis. It seems now, the light at the end of the tunnel, could turn out to be the headlight of an incoming train rather than the sunshine we all hope for.